A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
